Charting the Global Economy: US, Europe Inflation Stays Elevated

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(Bloomberg) — Inflation remains elevated in the US and euro-zone, supporting assertions from central bankers in both regions that it’s too soon to start cutting interest rates.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation rose in January by the most in a year, while price pressures in the euro-area eased less than anticipated in February.

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Elsewhere, China’s factory activity shrank for the fifth straight month in February, suggesting weak demand remains an obstacle for the world’s second-largest economy.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, geopolitics and markets:

US

The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.4% from December, the most in a year. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending dropped for the first time in five months after a robust holiday shopping season.

Consumer sentiment faltered in late February as current views of the economy and the outlook deteriorated, marking a reversal from earlier in the month that showed a pickup in optimism. The intramonth drop was the biggest since March 2020.

Europe

Euro-zone inflation eased in February by less than anticipated, supporting European Central Bank officials who don’t want to rush into lowering interest rates. While policymakers are optimistic that inflation is headed toward their 2% goal, they remain concerned that elevated increases in wages and labor costs risk stoking price pressures for longer.

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Russia plans to reduce daily diesel exports from its key western ports by 11% in March, after its refineries lowered crude-processing amid Ukrainian drone attacks. Russia no longer sends diesel to Europe due to Western energy sanctions. However, the drop in flows from one of the top global diesel exporters could create further pressure for the European market, which has been shaken by the disruption of shipments in the Red Sea and maintenance at regional refineries. 

Asia

The official manufacturing purchasing managers index for last month edged lower to 49.1, the National Bureau of Statistics said. A gauge of non-manufacturing activity rose, adding to signs of an uneven recovery in the world’s No. 2 economy.

India is chipping away at China’s dominance in electronics exports in some key markets as manufacturers diversify supply chains away from the world’s factory to other parts of Asia, a new study shows. The impact is most pronounced in the UK and US, where geopolitical tensions with China have increased in recent years. 

South Korea set a fresh record for the world’s lowest fertility rate as the impact of the nation’s aging demographics looms large for its medical system, social welfare provision and economic growth. The number of births also slid 7.7% to 230,000, setting a new low for comparable data in a nation of about 50 million people.

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North Korea has shipped containers that could hold millions of artillery shells to Russia, a top South Korean official said, allowing President Vladimir Putin to maintain his assault on Ukraine as Kyiv’s stocks of ammunition dwindle. Russia in return is providing North Korea with food, raw materials and parts used in weapons manufacturing, the official said, which is helping Kim Jong Un stabilize prices for necessities.

Emerging Markets

Indonesia plans to propose a wider budget deficit for next year to fund new policies by the incoming president, which may include Prabowo Subianto’s free lunch program. The program has raised concerns over Indonesia’s fiscal health.

World

Breaking into the top 1% of wealth in the US is getting harder. It now takes at least $5.8 million to join the richest echelon in the world’s largest economy, almost 15% more than about 12 months ago, according to research from Knight Frank. Monaco retains the top spot for the highest threshold worldwide at $12.8 million, while in Luxembourg and Switzerland one needs more than $8 million to make the cut.

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Israel’s central bank opted against another rate cut out of concern that inflation might reaccelerate as the war against Hamas continues. Nigeria’s central bank, in its first policy meeting since July, announced a super-sized hike to tackle runaway inflation and stem the collapse in its currency. Hungary cut at a faster pace after inflation slowed more than expected, while New Zealand and the Dominican Republic left rates unchanged.

—With assistance from Chandra Asmara, Jon Herskovitz, Zheping Huang, Sam Kim, Colum Murphy, Anup Roy, Augusta Saraiva, Grace Sihombing, Zoe Schneeweiss, Mark Schroers and Ben Stupples.

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